Global Capital Flow Intelligence
Track where institutional capital moves and how it reaches Indonesia
USD Strength + EM Outflow Pressure
Global capital is leaning toward USD assets as US yields rise and Asian FX weakens.
Impact to Indonesia
Indonesia Pressure
Outflow PressureRisk Monitor
Risk Radar
Click a market on the map for its country profile
Current pressure is mostly external, driven by USD strength and higher US yields. Indonesia-specific stress remains moderate.
Driver attribution
Why Capital Is Moving
Indonesia flow pressure: -68
Negative drivers -81
Positive drivers +13
Global → Indonesia
Transmission Path
How a global shock propagates to local assets
US CPI hotter than expected
+0.4% m/mFed cut expectations decline
−1.5 cuts pricedUS 10Y Yield
+8 bpsDXY strengthens
+0.6%Asian FX weakens
−0.4% avgIDR faces pressure
−0.7%SBN & IHSG foreign flow weaken
−Rp 1.8TCapital flow battle map
Forces In vs Forces Out
Outflow forces leading 60% : 40%
Pushing capital OUT
Higher USD demand pressures emerging market FX.
Confidence 86%
Treasuries out-yield SBN on a hedged basis.
Confidence 84%
Offshore investors trimming local bond holdings.
Confidence 79%
Costlier energy imports widen the trade gap.
Confidence 71%
Regional currencies drag the rupiah lower.
Confidence 70%
Sovereign risk premium ticking modestly higher.
Confidence 58%
Pulling capital IN
Persistent goods surplus supports the rupiah.
Confidence 68%
Firm commodity exports bring in FX earnings.
Confidence 65%
Policy buffer keeps real yields competitive.
Confidence 63%
SBN still offers a wide carry over USTs.
Confidence 61%
Solid consumption underpins local demand.
Confidence 60%
Indonesia impact matrix
How Global Drivers Hit Local Assets
Rows: macro drivers · Columns: Indonesian assets
| Driver | IDR | IHSG | SBN | Banks | Coal stocks | Gold | USD Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY rising | Neg | Neg | Neg | Mix | Mix | Pos | Pos |
| US 10Y rising | Neg | Neg | Neg | Mix | Neu | Neg | Pos |
| Oil rising | Neg | Mix | Neg | Neu | Pos | Pos | Neu |
| China weakness | Neg | Neg | Neu | Neg | Neg | Pos | Pos |
| Coal rising | Pos | Pos | Neu | Pos | Pos | Neu | Neu |
| Foreign outflow | Neg | Neg | Neg | Neg | Mix | Neu | Pos |
| BI hawkish | Pos | Mix | Mix | Pos | Neu | Neu | Neu |
Strongest Inflow Support
Click a country to view its macro profile
| # | Country | Assets | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | United States Yields + safe-haven USD | DXYUS10Y | +42 | |
| 2 | Japan Weak JPY supports exporters | NikkeiExporters | +28 | |
| 3 | South Korea Chip cycle pulls inflow | KOSPISemis | +24 | |
| 4 | Singapore Regional safe-haven hub | STIBanks | +12 | |
| 5 | Germany ECB hold, soft data | DAXEUR | +8 |
Strongest Outflow Pressure
Click a country to view its macro profile
| # | Country | Assets | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Indonesia USD strength + SBN outflow | IDRSBN | -68 | |
| 2 | Philippines USD strength + CA deficit | PHPPSEi | -52 | |
| 3 | India Crude + EM outflow | INRSensex | -45 | |
| 4 | China Growth + yuan weakness | CNYCSI 300 | -31 | |
| 5 | Brazil High rates vs USD drag | BRLBovespa | -18 |
Anomaly Detector
Market Divergences
Contradictions worth a second look
IHSG up but foreign flow negative
WatchRally may be domestic-driven, not foreign-led.
IDR weaker despite commodity support
AlertExternal USD pressure is dominating local positive factors.
Gold up while equities also up
InfoMarket may be hedging despite risk-on behavior.
Indonesia 10Y rising faster than US 10Y
AlertLocal bond risk premium may be widening.
Upcoming Catalysts
What To Watch Next
Events that could shift capital flow
US PCE Inflation
HighCore PCE is the Fed's preferred gauge; a hot print extends USD strength.
Fed Speaker
MediumForward-guidance tone can shift rate-cut expectations.
BI Rate Decision
HighPolicy stance sets the domestic carry buffer against USD strength.
China PMI
MediumDemand signal for commodity exporters and regional sentiment.
Indonesia Trade Balance
MediumSurplus size shapes the external buffer for the rupiah.
AI Macro Intelligence
What This All Means
Flow score −68: net outflow bias. Drivers are external — DXY +0.6%, UST 10Y +8 bps, broad Asia FX soft. SBN seeing foreign supply (−Rp 1.8T), IDR offered at 16,180. Local offsets (trade surplus, coal/CPO, BI carry) are partial cushions, not a turn signal. Bias: short IDR / cautious SBN duration; IHSG mixed — favor domestic-demand and commodity names over rate-sensitive banks. Watch US PCE tonight as the next trigger.
Generated from current macro signals · Informational only — not investment advice